The Web Tycoon’s blog

The members of the ECB’s Observatori, a committee of experts, believe that its necessary to keep the interest rate at 1% and will say it in the meeting that will be hold tomorrow.

However, there isn’t consensus on the way the emergency measures taken because of the crisis should be lifted, the committee believes that the support given to the banks should be gradually retreated.

The recent Crisis of Dubai, Whose government asked for a moratorium to pay part of the public company , Dubai World, triggered the divergence of opinions. ”the panic generated by Dubai is the best test to reach a conclusion about the financial crisis, this case mirrors a trust crisis that is far of being solved”

Explains José Luis Martinez, strategist in Spain of Citi ”’the Central Banks must continue spreading liquidity and adecuated credit conditions to normalizethe markets”,

added. Nowadays banks can get money at a low interest rate an lend it very expensive.

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In the middle of the season where the forecasts for 2010 are released, Morgan Stanley is seeing something different than the optimistic approach of the majority. The company predicted that the European Stocks could close the 2010 with 5% lower levels than nowadays. Before of this, they could reach additional improvements by 10%.

In a different approach than Morgan Stanley The Investment firms are returning to rely on increases by until 10-15% in the European Stock this incoming Year.

Morgan Stanley calculates that in the next months the rally begun in March will continue, since then, the European Stock market is accumulating profits of 50%.

If the Forecasts of Morgan Stanley are correct, in middle-2010 The European MSCI index, will reach a 10% of additional revaluation and a maximum of 1200 points.

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The United States have begun the Christmas campaign with strength, according the National Retail Federation , that started analyzing the data from the Black Friday, the day after Thanks giving, also known for the day with more sales of the Year.

The American retailers are offering a lot of great deals to incite people to forget the crisis and spend again.

Amongst the most successful products this Black Friday, we can find high definition televisions, laptops, coats, and the famous robot hamsters Zhu Zhu Pets.

Commercial Centers like Wal-Mart called the crowds by offering laptops at $298 , Other companies like Best-Buy, the biggest electronic store of the country, offered very cheap plasma televisions to attract customers on the black Friday.

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Ben Bernanke, has stated that the federal Reserve follows very closely the evolution of the dollar, after the considerable depreciation this currency suffered in the last weeks against other currencies. However, Bernanke, highlighted that the interest rates will continue low as the economy continues weak and the employment high. Ben Bernanke participated in a talk at the Economic Club of New York, where repeated the same speech about what will do the Federal reserve in the following months.

The president of the Federal Reserve, reiterated that although the economy has returned to the growth, ” the interest rates will continue low during a long period of time”.

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The interest rate in Europe is not likely to rise, October has been  the month of the 5th negative strike of the inflation rate in the European Union. However, this time,it was just by -0.1%, due to a increase by 0,25 in the interbank market, The Euribor set this historical minimum at 1,222%.

According the analyst’s forecasts, the prizes in the Eurozone, could recover his positive values this month itself, and make the interest rates end to fall, according the analyst’s forecasts. They also predicted a monthly growth of 0,3% in October, but this became just 0.2%.

The Inflation rate in the Eurozone is keeping too far from the limit objective ( point where the interest rate should be increased) of 2% set by the European Central Bank (ECB). The analysts forecasts continue postponing the increase of interest rates in the Eurozone until the 2010.

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Today in Wall Street, the ‘shelter’ currencies and the assets like the gold have won the pulse. The data on unemployment hasn’t been the only bad new today, the wholesale stocks in September decreased in September for the10th consecutive month while the sales increased more than the expected. According the data published by the Commerce Department, the wholesale inventories felt a 0,9% as the analysts expected.

In Wall Street, unemployment has been the key data, this tax rose from 9,8% to 10,2% a 26 years max, due to the destruction of 190,000 jobs, more than the 175000 expected by the analysts.

The investors of Wall Street are awaiting with some trust the release of the official unemployment report of the US corresponding to the month of October. In his forecasts they promised to wall Street and all the nation, the smallest employment destruction in more than a year, 175000 jobs.

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The financial CIT, specialist in loans to students and small companies, declared bankruptcy this Sunday, this is the five th biggest bankruptcy in the history of the United States.

According The Wall Street Journal in the digital edition, the decision of the company of declare bankruptcy was adopted in an administration council celebrated yesterday. in New York.

With $ 71 billion of assets, CIT is the 5th major company to declare bankruptcy in the story of the united states, only surpassed by Lehman Brothers, Washington mutual, Worldcom and General Motors.

The bankruptcy of CIT, that was brought by the financial crisis due to it’s excessive exposure to student loans with high risk profile, supposes throw away $2,3bilion invested by the American Government to try to save the company.

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The fall of the consumer Index and the bad forecasts on Baidu, the Chinese Google, marked the session in Wall Street, but the Dow Jones could even keep the green on october 27^th . Also the rise of the dollar and the Oil have been protagonists of Wall Street on October 27^th (the Oil had correction on October 28^th).

The Dow Jones of industry was the only able to end the day in green with rises of 0,14% to 9882 points. The Standard and Poor’s 500 lost a 0.33% to 1063 points. While the technological Nasdaq Composite took the worst part falling by 1,2% to 2116 points.

Two factors played a important role today against Wall Street and The Dow Jones , the technological companies and the fall of the consumer index in October. In the fist case, the American companies of the Nasdaq paid for the giant Baidu, that has very bad forecasts for the upcoming months and Wall Street penalized this.

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Capmark Financial Group, one of the main banks financing commercial soil in the United States, is lasting their plans to declare bankruptcy, as sources close to the operation informed . The confirmation of the bankruptcy could be released this weekend.

This has been also published by the ‘The Wall Street Journal’, that is confirming a very expected measure that highlights the problems in the property business.

After suffering the residential mortgage collapse, the banks of the United States are suffering heavy loses that could lead to bankruptcy from the goods commercial mortgages .

The decision also supposes a hard hit to the private capital owners of the corporation. In 2006, a group leaded by KKR, Goldman Sachs Capital Partners and Five Mile Capital Partners acquired the commercial loaner GMAC and put it the name of Capmark. On March 31^st , the investor group was disposing of approximately the 75% of the company while the rest was belonging to GMAC and the employees.

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The pound rose yesterday with strength according to the other currencies thanks to the Bank of England, Last Thursday, the British currency rose by 1’8% in front of the Euro to 1.11€ per pound in their biggest daily rose since January.

Comparing with the yen, the pound won a 3%, something never seen since February, in the case of the dollar, the pound rose by 1,7% to 1,62 dollars per BP.

Building of the Bank of England

The pound was boosted by the speculations pointing the Bank of England, the measures adopted to fight the crisis these month may be stopped and this would increase the value of the pound. Paul fisher, market director of the Bank of England, declared in a interview with financial times that the Bank of England could stop its program of assets repurchase to resume it lather.

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